Department of Political Science

Political Science
1414 Social Sciences Building
267 19th Ave S
Minneapolis, MN 55455

Phone: 612-624-4144
Fax: 612-626-7599
E-mail: polisci@umn.edu

John Freeman Working Papers

Technical Note: Nonlinearity in the Univariate China Toward Taiwan Net Count Series

ABSTRACT:
This report briefly reviews some simple nonlinear time series models. It then fits a univariate model of this type to a series for directed dyadic behavior in the Taiwan straits, specifically, the monthly net of materially cooperative and materially conflictual events directed by China toward Taiwan in the period 1998:1-2011:3. The analysis illustrates the problem one encounters in (frequentist) pretesting for nonlinearity and also highlights the risks of overfitting the data–the ability to find a good fitting threshold autoregressive model when the pretests for the data are inconclusive. More generally, the results provide a methodological benchmark for the fuller, multiequation, nonlinear modeling efforts in Lin et al. (in progress) and in Brandt et al (2012).

Available in PDF Format: Paper Text


Research Note: Can Time Series Methods Be Used to Detect Path Dependence?

ABSTRACT:
Conventional time series methods give us tools to identify and analyze data generating processes that embody most of the key concepts associated with the idea of path dependency. We simply need to be clear about the nature of each model, how (if) each model embodies the impact of initial conditions, the set or sequence of shocks that a data generating process experiences, and multiple equilibria. These ideas are illustrated in the second part of the paper by analyzing for nonlinearity the Green, Palmquist and Schickler (GPS) series for macropartisanship. The results of a battery of tests suggest that this series indeed may be nonlinear. A self-exciting threshold autogressive (SETAR) model is found that describes this series. The estimates and regime switching plot from this model are reported. And the GPS series is reinterpreted in relation to the ideas associated with path dependence. Doing this illuminates new and potentially useful ideas about the nature of American macropolitical dynamics. It also suggests the need for tests for nonlinearity in macropartisanship and in (macropartisanship’s relationship to) other theoretically important series.

Available in PDF Format: Paper Text


Preface to the Spanish Edition of Democracy and Markets: The Politics of Mixed Economies

Editorial Almuzara plans to publish a Spanish language version of Democracy and Markets. This new Preface was written for this Spanish language version.

Available in PDF Format: Preface Text


"The Electoral Information Hypothesis Revisited," with Jude Hayes and Helmut Stix.

ABSTRACT:
The connection between political and bond market equilibration is studied. The conventional wisdom on the subject, the Electoral Information Hypothesis (EIH; Cohen 1993, Alesina, Roubini and Cohen 1997), is criticized on theoretical and empirical grounds. Using a framework proposed by Garrett and Lange (1995) and data from three of the most developed bond markets in the world a revised hypothesis is constructed and tested. The revised hypothesis recognizes the way formal political and bureaucratic institutions mitigate the effects of democratic politics on bond markets as well as the "fat tailed" distributions and volatility clustering commonly found in financial time series. The results show that empirical support for the revised EIH extends beyond the American case, but this support is not universal. More specifically, where democracy is of the majoritarian type and central banks are weak (the U.K. until recently) the revised EIH holds. Once placed on sounder statistical footings, the U.S. case-one of mixed majoritarian and consensual democracy and a moderately strong central bank-also supports the revised EIH. However, the revised EIH does not receive support in Germany, which has a consensual form of democracy and a strong central bank. The empirical power of the revised EIH thus is shown to vary by institutional context.

Available in PDF Format: Paper Text

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